US game industry could reach $18 billion in 2007, August nears $1 billion

Bioshock for the Xbox 360Once again, the game industry sales in the US are beating analyst expectations.

August saw the US pull in $993 million dollars, combined total for console and handheld software, hardware and accessories (this DOES NOT include PC games!). This is up from $67 billion from July’s total of $925.5 million. And this marks a massive 46% year-on-year increase from the 2006 total of $679 million. This suggests that having all three consoles in play, as well as two handhelds, is helping the industry grow.

Console hardware made $302 million in August. Microsoft dropped the price of their Xbox 360 Core, Elite and Pro packages, leaving a $20, $30 and $50 dollar price reduction respectively. So naturally, sales of the $279, $449 and $349 dollar consoles jumped up by 100,000 units, going from a combined 170,000 in July to 277,000 in August.

“The price cut was a big help, as was Madden 08 and BioShock,” said NPD Group analyst Anita Frazier. “Taking the price cut prior to Halo 3 set the Xbox 360 up nicely to have a very strong holiday season.” NPD estimates that from launch in 2005 to the end of last month, the Xbox 360 has sold 6.3 million consoles in the US.

A stark contrast to the PS3 60GB price cut, which appears to be slowing somewhat. From June to July sales jumped from 98,500 in June to 159,000 in July, now sales have fallen to approximately 130,600. According to the NPD, from the PS3 launch in November 2006 till now, it has sold 1.75 million consoles. In the 7 years since the PS2 launched, sales of it have been 39.1 million in the US. 202,000 of those being sold last month.

And of course, the Wii was the best selling non-PC platform last month. Although overall sales were slightly down from the month before, having fallen from 425,000 in July to 403,600, which is quite a surprise considering that the very highly rated Wii-exclusive Metroid Prime 3: Corruption came out during that month.

Frazier believes the downturn was not due to lack of interest in the Wii. “Demand is still meeting or exceeding supply,” she said. As for the ongoing shortage of the console, Frazier thinks that “We’ll see this situation continue through the holidays, and we may see some balancing starting February 2008.”

As far as portable game sales for August, $83 million dollars worth of PSP and DS hardware was made. The Nintendo DS is on the top, as always, with 383,300 compared to the PSP’s 151,200 (To date, the DS has sold 12.7 million total and the PSP 8.3 million in the US according to the NPD). It’s also worth noting that this is the first month that the NPD has stopped reporting on monthly sales of the Game Boy Advance, which debuted in 2001 with two further redesigns since, and has sold nearly 82 million units worldwide to date, with sales still being high (you’ll recall that only a few weeks ago the GBA outsold the PS3!)

As for sales of video game software in August, it reached $488 million, thanks in large part to EA’s Madden franchise. The best selling game of the month was Madden NFL ’08 on Xbox 360, in second place was Madden NFL 08 on PS2. The PS3 version was fourth, with the Xbox version being 11th, the Wii version 12th and the PSP version 18th.

Bioshock came in 3rd place. The Xbox 360-exclusive first-person action adventure shipped over 1.5 million copies and was highly hyped and critically acclaimed, so it’s no surprise that it’s sales were so high. Contrary to what some European press outlets have reported, Bioshock outsold the other big non-Madden release, the Wii’s Metroid Prime 3: Corruption by a big margin, 490,000 to 218,100 respectively.

NPD AUGUST 2007 US HARDWARE FIGURES (All figures approximate)

Wii: 403,600 (4 million LTD)
DS: 383,300 (12.7 million LTD)
Xbox 360: 276,700 (6.3 million LTD)
PlayStation 2: 202,000 (39.1 million LTD)
PlayStation Portable: 151,200 (8.3 million LTD)
PlayStation 3: 130,600 (1.75 million LTD)

NPD AUGUST 2007 US SOFTWARE FIGURES
1. Madden NFL 08 / 360 / Electronic Arts / Aug-07 / (E) / 896,600
2. Madden NFL 08 / PS2 / Electronic Arts / Aug-07 / (E) / 643,000
3. BioShock / 360 / 2K Games / Aug-07 / (M) / 490,900
4. Madden NFL 08 / PS3 / Electronic Arts / Aug-07 / (E) / 336,200
5. Wii Play (with remote) / Wii / Nintendo / Feb-07 / (E) / 256,800
6. Metroid Prime 3: Corruption / Wii / Nintendo / Aug-07 / (T) / 218,100
7. Mario Strikers: Charged / Wii / Nintendo / Jul-07 / 10+ (E10+) / 147,400
8. Guitar Hero II (with guitar) / PS2 / Activision / Nov-06 / (T) / 145,400
9. Mario Party 8 / Wii / Nintendo / May-07 / (E) / 138,300
10. Guitar Hero Encore: Rocks The 80s / PS2 / Activision / Jul-07 / (T) / 127,100
11. Madden NFL 08 / Xbox / Electronic Arts / Aug-07 / (E)*
12. Madden NFL 08 / Wii / Electronic Arts / Aug-07 / (E)*
13. Brain Age 2 / DS / Nintendo / Aug-07 / (E)*
14. Two Worlds / 360 / Southpeak Interactive / Aug-07 / (M)*
15. Pokémon Diamond / DS / Nintendo / Apr-07 / (E)*
16. High School Musical: Makin’ The Cut / DS/ Disney / Aug-07 / 16) (E)*
17. Guitar Hero II (with guitar) / 360 / Activision / Mar-07 / (T)*
18. Madden NFL 08 / PSP / Electronic Arts / Aug-07 / (E)*
19. Pokémon Pearl / DS / Nintendo / Apr-07 / (E)*
20. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 / 360 / Electronic Arts / Aug-07 / (E)*

Due to the high video games sales in August, which beat the expectations of analysts, many are optimistic about the forthcoming holiday season, none more so than Anita Frazier, the top analyst at the NPD, who believes that 2007 is gonna have a banner year despite several high profile delays, including that of Grand Theft Auto IV, and that this year will still be one for the record books.

“The industry is up by nearly 50 percent. The back part of the year would have to fall apart to not have a record-breaking year. I think we’ll end in the range of $16 to $18 billion in the US,” she said.

She also weighed in on several ongoing trends and forthcoming releases. She predicts no real relief from the ongoing shortage of Wii consoles until next year. “Very simply, demand is still meeting or exceeding supply,” she said. “I think we’ll see this situation continue through the holidays, and we may see some balancing starting February 2008.”

She thinks that the clash between Rock Band and Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock won’t be much of a clash at all, saying, “The rock music premise of both . . . is an experience with such broad appeal, I think they can coexist in the market nicely.”

Frazier also agrees with the widespread sentiment that game publishers are hurting themselves by jam-packing the holiday season with releases. “If a title is big enough and buzz is strong, it will sell any time of the year,” she asserted. “There is no need for strong titles to rely on Q4. Some less strong titles may want to ride the wave of retail dollars that flow in particularly in November and December, and that is a legitimate marketing tactic. But strong titles should not fear other release windows, and it can be very beneficial to have some breathing room.” — Numbers via GS